Nottoway County leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Nottoway County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Nottoway County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Nottoway County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Nottoway County leans more Republican than 11 of 22 neighbors.
Nottoway County runs about 14 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Nottoway County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Nottoway County. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+3) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+37), a spread of about 40 points.
Why Nottoway County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Nottoway County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 13% of adults in Nottoway County hold a bachelor's degree, about 15 points below the Virginia average of 29%. Nottoway County runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Nottoway County, VA sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Nottoway County looks the way it does
Turnout in Nottoway County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Lunenburg County, VA R+24
- Amelia County, VA R+40
- Prince Edward County, VA D+7
- Cumberland County, VA R+23
- Dinwiddie County, VA R+16
- Brunswick County, VA D+13
- Powhatan County, VA R+38
- Charlotte County, VA R+31
- Mecklenburg County, VA R+17
- Chesterfield County, VA D+12
Counties with Similar Populations
- Floyd County, IA R+30
- Pemiscot County, MO R+30
- Jefferson County, IA R+4
- Clarke County, MS R+26
- Henry County, KY R+51
- Gooding County, ID R+54
- Marquette County, WI R+36
- Aitkin County, MN R+33
- Mercer County, IL R+33
- Carroll County, IL R+34
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.