Novato leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Novato typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Novato, ~47% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Novato compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Novato leans more Democratic than 9 of 67 neighbors.
Novato runs about 14 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Novato. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+38) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+23), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Novato leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Novato, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 70% of residents in Novato live in densely developed areas, about 34 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Novato sits in the top quarter (about 49%, above 93% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 32% of adults in Novato have never been married, above 79% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Novato, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Novato looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Novato is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sleepy Hollow, CA D+55
- Nicasio, CA D+47
- Woodacre, CA D+52
- San Anselmo, CA D+60
- Fairfax, CA D+73
- San Rafael, CA D+46
- San Geronimo, CA D+51
- Lagunitas-Forest Knolls, CA D+60
- Forest Knolls, CA D+60
- Ross, CA D+52
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mentor, OH R+13
- Fountainebleau, FL R+30
- Howell, MI R+24
- Kirkland, WA D+45
- Monterey Park, CA D+21
- Davenport, FL R+6
- North Bergen, NJ D+6
- Richland, WA R+9
- Lebanon, TN R+40
- Hoboken, NJ D+41
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.