Orange County is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 77% of adults in Orange County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Orange County, ~39% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Orange County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Orange County sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 3 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 5 leaning the other way.
Orange County runs about 31 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Orange County. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+32) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+35), a spread of about 67 points.
Why Orange County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Orange County. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Orange County, VT sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Orange County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Orange County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 83% of households in Orange County own their home, above 91% of counties. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Orange County have completed high school, above 89% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Washington County, VT D+19
- Grafton County, NH D+18
- Windsor County, VT D+17
- Caledonia County, VT R+9
- Addison County, VT D+23
- Rutland County, VT R+9
- Lamoille County, VT D+7
- Sullivan County, NH R+16
- Chittenden County, VT D+35
- Essex County, VT R+31
Counties with Similar Populations
- Grimes County, TX R+42
- Gallia County, OH R+57
- Marion County, AL R+79
- Decatur County, GA R+10
- Marion County, SC D+17
- Carroll County, VA R+63
- Morgan County, CO R+37
- Franklin County, ME R+18
- Hancock County, WV R+42
- Neshoba County, MS R+31
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.