Essex County leans heavily Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 80% of adults in Essex County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Essex County, ~28% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Essex County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Essex County is the most Republican-leaning.
Essex County runs about 64 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Essex County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Essex County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+38) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Essex County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Essex County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Essex County votes against the grain of Vermont. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Essex County runs about 64 points more Republican.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Essex County, VT sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Essex County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 82% of households in Essex County own their home, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Coos County, NH R+24
- Caledonia County, VT R+9
- Orleans County, VT R+17
- Lamoille County, VT D+7
- Washington County, VT D+19
- Orange County, VT Even
- Grafton County, NH D+18
- Oxford County, ME R+25
- Franklin County, VT R+23
- Carroll County, NH R+2
Counties with Similar Populations
- Crowley County, CO R+47
- Sherman County, KS R+66
- Ohio County, IN R+58
- Pondera County, MT R+35
- Taylor County, IA R+50
- Chouteau County, MT R+24
- Cumberland County, KY R+67
- Benson County, ND D+2
- Stanton County, NE R+64
- Sullivan County, MO R+56
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.