Firebaugh leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 41% of adults in Firebaugh typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Firebaugh, ~22% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Firebaugh compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Firebaugh leans more Democratic than 16 of 19 neighbors.
Firebaugh runs about 12 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Firebaugh. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+33), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Firebaugh leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Firebaugh, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 61% of residents in Firebaugh live in densely developed areas, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 42% of adults in Firebaugh have never been married, above 95% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Firebaugh, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Firebaugh looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Firebaugh is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 37%, about 25 points below the California average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 54% of households in Firebaugh rent, about 29 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 49% of adults in Firebaugh report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mendota, CA D+12
- South Dos Palos, CA R+14
- Dos Palos, CA R+11
- Oro Loma, CA R+24
- Tranquillity, CA D+9
- La Vina, CA R+22
- Fairmead, CA R+37
- El Nido, CA R+54
- Chowchilla, CA R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Corona de Tucson, AZ R+23
- Sharon Hill, PA D+75
- Bullard, TX R+63
- Leonia, NJ D+23
- Whitehall, MI R+18
- Big Stone Gap, VA R+44
- Effingham, SC R+20
- New Hudson, MI R+14
- Madisonville, TX R+31
- Socorro, NM D+4
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.