Pauls Valley leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 54% of adults in Pauls Valley typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pauls Valley, ~14% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pauls Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Pauls Valley leans more Republican than 3 of 41 neighbors.
Politically, Pauls Valley sits close to the rest of Oklahoma.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Pauls Valley. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+63) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+38), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Pauls Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pauls Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Pauls Valley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 28%, modestly above the Oklahoma average of 18%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Pauls Valley, OK does.
Why turnout in Pauls Valley looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Pauls Valley is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 41% of households in Pauls Valley rent, compared to around 25% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in Pauls Valley report food insecurity, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- White Bead, OK R+57
- Paoli, OK R+66
- Wynnewood, OK R+60
- Pernell, OK R+71
- Antioch, OK R+69
- Maysville, OK R+67
- Rosedale, OK R+67
- Joy, OK R+71
- Katie, OK R+70
- Elmore City, OK R+66
Cities with Similar Populations
- Great Neck Plaza, NY D+21
- Crystal City, TX D+5
- Crockett, TX R+5
- Jena, LA R+53
- Dover, AR R+65
- Waverly, TN R+55
- Cocoa West, FL D+22
- Wellston, OH R+55
- Waveland, MS R+41
- Coal Township, PA R+35
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oklahoma State Election Board, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.