Paw Paw leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 92% of adults in Paw Paw typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paw Paw, ~37% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~8% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Paw Paw compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Paw Paw leans more Republican than 20 of 72 neighbors.
Paw Paw runs about 19 points more Republican than Michigan as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Paw Paw. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+32) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+14), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Paw Paw leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paw Paw, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Paw Paw votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 29%, about 7 points below the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Paw Paw, MI sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Paw Paw looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Paw Paw is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mattawan, MI R+15
- Lawton, MI R+22
- Pine Grove, MI R+29
- Lawrence, MI R+28
- Gobles, MI R+29
- Decatur, MI R+26
- Kendall, MI R+32
- Bloomingdale, MI R+33
- Volinia, MI R+31
- Breedsville, MI R+31
Cities with Similar Populations
- Escalon, CA R+42
- Hellertown, PA R+9
- Baxley, GA R+49
- Wynne, AR R+35
- Freeport, TX R+10
- Norfolk, MA D+20
- Bridgewater, NJ Even
- Wallington, NJ R+23
- Egg Harbor City, NJ R+11
- Urbana, MD D+28
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Michigan Department of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.