Potrero leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 45% of adults in Potrero typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Potrero, ~19% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Potrero compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Potrero leans more Republican than 8 of 29 neighbors.
Potrero runs about 35 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Potrero is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Potrero leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Potrero, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 1% of residents in Potrero live in densely developed areas, about 56 points below the California average of 58%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 81% of households in Potrero are family households, above 90% of cities. Potrero runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Potrero, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Potrero looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Potrero is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 58% of households in Potrero rent, compared to around 28% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in Potrero report food insecurity, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tecate, CA R+14
- Canyon City, CA R+17
- Cameron Corners, CA R+31
- Campo, CA R+31
- Dulzura, CA R+29
- Boulder Oaks, CA R+29
- Barrett, CA R+27
- Pine Valley, CA R+35
- Tierra del Sol, CA R+27
- Guatay, CA R+33
Cities with Similar Populations
- New Salem, MA D+33
- Knob Lick, KY R+65
- Columbus City, IA R+25
- Burnettsville, IN R+56
- McMillin, WA Even
- Cottageville, WV R+60
- Harvey, KY R+62
- Kents Hill, ME D+4
- Ohio, IL R+43
- Newton, WI R+43
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.