Rio Grande leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Rio Grande typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rio Grande, ~31% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rio Grande compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Rio Grande leans more Republican than 16 of 54 neighbors.
Rio Grande runs about 24 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Rio Grande is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Rio Grande. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+29) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Rio Grande leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rio Grande, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rio Grande votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 54%, modestly below the New Jersey average of 61%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Rio Grande runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Rio Grande, NJ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Rio Grande looks the way it does
Turnout in Rio Grande sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Villas, NJ R+22
- West Wildwood, NJ R+30
- Wildwood, NJ R+9
- Cape May, NJ R+15
- Wildwood Crest, NJ R+23
- North Wildwood, NJ R+27
- Cold Spring, NJ R+21
- North Cape May, NJ R+19
- Wildwood Gables, NJ R+6
- Cape May Court House, NJ R+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Surf City, NC R+39
- Jacksboro, TX R+69
- Dewey, OK R+54
- Scottsville, NY Even
- Eveleth, MN R+5
- Palisade, CO R+25
- Treasure Lake, PA R+30
- Walton, NY R+24
- Broadalbin, NY R+29
- Newton, NH R+8
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.