San Carlos Park leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 65% of adults in San Carlos Park typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Carlos Park, ~25% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Carlos Park compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Carlos Park leans more Republican than 10 of 25 neighbors.
San Carlos Park runs about 9 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why San Carlos Park leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Carlos Park, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
San Carlos Park votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 97%, far above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; San Carlos Park, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in San Carlos Park looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. San Carlos Park is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Estero, FL R+26
- Coconut, FL R+37
- Villas, FL R+13
- Cypress Lake, FL R+19
- Fort Myers Beach, FL R+29
- Fort Myers, FL R+19
- McGregor, FL R+21
- Whiskey Creek, FL R+22
- Gateway, FL R+21
- Bonita Springs, FL R+24
Cities with Similar Populations
- Alpena, MI R+16
- Florence, MS R+61
- Rockmart, GA R+52
- Nevada City, CA D+24
- Clanton, AL R+64
- Brooklyn, MD D+59
- Avenel, NJ D+21
- East Rancho Dominguez, CA D+43
- Floresville, TX R+37
- Centerton, AR R+31
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.