San Juan County, NM Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in San Juan County

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

San Juan County leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.

 

About 70% of adults in San Juan County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Juan County, ~26% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How San Juan County compares

San Juan County sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable counties nearby.

San Juan County runs about 32 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while San Juan County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by city within San Juan County. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+34) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+49), a spread of about 83 points.

Why San Juan County leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Juan County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 83% of residents in San Juan County drive to work alone, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 74%. San Juan County runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Non-English at home and voter turnout

Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; San Juan County, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in San Juan County looks the way it does

Turnout in San Juan County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.