Jasper County leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Jasper County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jasper County, ~20% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jasper County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Jasper County leans more Republican than 1 of 12 neighbors.
Jasper County runs about 22 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Jasper County. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+27), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Jasper County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jasper County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Jasper County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 61%, far above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Jasper County, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Jasper County looks the way it does
Turnout in Jasper County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Newton County, MO R+54
- Cherokee County, KS R+56
- Barton County, MO R+65
- Crawford County, KS R+28
- Ottawa County, OK R+53
- McDonald County, MO R+65
- Lawrence County, MO R+60
- Dade County, MO R+67
- Barry County, MO R+62
- Labette County, KS R+42
Counties with Similar Populations
- Blair County, PA R+37
- Saline County, AR R+41
- Morgan County, AL R+43
- Berkeley County, WV R+33
- Faulkner County, AR R+30
- Kennebec County, ME R+7
- San Juan County, NM R+26
- Bonneville County, ID R+43
- Gregg County, TX R+28
- Comanche County, OK R+18
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.