Tom Green County leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Tom Green County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tom Green County, ~19% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tom Green County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Tom Green County is the least Republican-leaning.
Tom Green County runs about 25 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Tom Green County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+67) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+29), a spread of about 39 points.
Why Tom Green County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tom Green County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tom Green County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 69%, far above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Tom Green County, TX does.
Why turnout in Tom Green County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tom Green County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 35% of households in Tom Green County rent, above 87% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Irion County, TX R+69
- Coke County, TX R+72
- Runnels County, TX R+64
- Concho County, TX R+71
- Schleicher County, TX R+44
- Sterling County, TX R+80
- Menard County, TX R+53
- Reagan County, TX R+55
- Sutton County, TX R+46
- Coleman County, TX R+63
Counties with Similar Populations
- Allegan County, MI R+28
- La Crosse County, WI D+8
- Fayette County, GA R+4
- Carroll County, GA R+35
- Gallatin County, MT D+6
- Clark County, IN R+23
- Comanche County, OK R+18
- Douglas County, KS D+35
- Potter County, TX R+19
- San Juan County, NM R+26
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.