Florence, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Florence

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Florence leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.

 

About 60% of adults in Florence typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Florence, ~25% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Florence compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Florence leans more Republican than 11 of 23 neighbors.

Florence runs about 11 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Florence. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+44) and the east side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 43 points.

Why Florence leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Florence, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Florence votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 38%, above 83% of cities). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Florence are family households, above 77% of cities.

Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout

Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Florence, AZ does.

Why turnout in Florence looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Florence is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in Florence have completed high school, below 84% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.