Shelley is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 86% of adults in Shelley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shelley, ~15% vote Democratic, ~71% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shelley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shelley leans more Republican than 10 of 24 neighbors.
Shelley runs about 28 points more Republican than Idaho as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Shelley. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+73) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+59), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Shelley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shelley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Shelley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 21%, about 15 points below the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in Shelley are family households, above 86% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Shelley, ID sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Shelley looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Shelley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Woodville, ID R+61
- Basalt, ID R+70
- Firth, ID R+69
- Kimball, ID R+64
- Idaho Falls, ID R+40
- Ammon, ID R+48
- Wapello, ID R+51
- Rose, ID R+66
- Milo, ID R+62
- Beachs Corner, ID R+66
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dunbar, WV D+3
- Rolesville, NC D+8
- Marlton, MD D+79
- Oroville East, CA R+29
- White River Junction, VT D+21
- New Boston, MI R+27
- Talbott, TN R+62
- Prairie Grove, AR R+46
- Vale, NC R+61
- Lebanon, NH D+45
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Idaho Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.