Stephens City leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 88% of adults in Stephens City typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Stephens City, ~34% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Stephens City compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Stephens City leans more Republican than 17 of 76 neighbors.
Stephens City runs about 27 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Stephens City is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Stephens City. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+15), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Stephens City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Stephens City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Stephens City votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 67%, far above the Virginia average of 26%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Stephens City runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Stephens City, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Stephens City looks the way it does
Turnout in Stephens City sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- White Post, VA R+16
- Vaucluse, VA R+28
- Kernstown, VA R+25
- Ashby, VA R+35
- Middletown, VA R+41
- Winchester, VA R+10
- Millwood, VA R+17
- Oranda, VA R+47
- Milldale, VA R+32
- Boyce, VA R+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Palm Valley, FL R+23
- Smithfield, NC R+14
- Enumclaw, WA R+7
- Thomaston, GA R+25
- Fayetteville, TN R+57
- Westerly, RI D+7
- Lumberton, TX R+70
- Agoura Hills, CA D+18
- Mechanicsville, MD R+38
- South Holland, IL D+77
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.