Kernstown leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Kernstown typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Kernstown, ~30% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Kernstown compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Kernstown leans more Republican than 25 of 76 neighbors.
Kernstown runs about 31 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Kernstown is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Kernstown leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Kernstown, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 88% of residents in Kernstown drive to work alone, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Kernstown runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Kernstown, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Kernstown looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Kernstown is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 62%, compared to around 70% in nearby cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Stephens City, VA R+21
- Winchester, VA R+10
- White Post, VA R+16
- Millwood, VA R+17
- Vaucluse, VA R+28
- Ashby, VA R+35
- Stephenson, VA R+19
- Boyce, VA R+18
- Briggs, VA R+18
- Middletown, VA R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Crystal Lake Park, MO R+6
- Hurtsboro, AL D+50
- Crandall, IN R+49
- Burlington, IL R+37
- Oak Hill, OK R+77
- Sodus Point, NY R+14
- Ontario, IN R+60
- Caliente, NV R+60
- Marvell, AR Even
- Kynesville, FL R+60
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.