Middletown leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Middletown typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middletown, ~23% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middletown compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middletown leans more Republican than 42 of 73 neighbors.
Middletown runs about 47 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Middletown is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Middletown. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+48) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+38), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Middletown leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middletown, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Middletown votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Middletown runs about 47 points more Republican.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Middletown, VA sits above the national average on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Middletown looks the way it does
Turnout in Middletown sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Vaucluse, VA R+28
- Oranda, VA R+47
- Waterlick, VA R+45
- Strasburg, VA R+42
- Stephens City, VA R+21
- White Post, VA R+16
- Ashby, VA R+35
- Fishers Hill, VA R+53
- Front Royal, VA R+30
- Kernstown, VA R+25
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cayuga Heights, NY D+76
- Laporte, CO D+2
- North Salem, NY D+6
- Battle Mountain, NV R+59
- Fremont, NC R+36
- Hill Afb, UT R+19
- Rural Retreat, VA R+60
- Biglerville, PA R+46
- Lytton Springs, TX R+7
- Eleva, WI R+23
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.