Temecula leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Temecula typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Temecula, ~31% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Temecula compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Temecula leans more Republican than 9 of 39 neighbors.
Temecula runs about 32 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Temecula is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Temecula. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 39 points.
Why Temecula leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Temecula, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Temecula votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 84%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 81% of households in Temecula are family households, above 92% of cities. Temecula runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Temecula, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Temecula looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Temecula is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Murrieta, CA R+14
- French Valley, CA R+17
- Rainbow, CA R+22
- Winchester, CA R+22
- Pala, CA R+20
- Radec, CA R+41
- Fallbrook, CA R+8
- Sage, CA R+42
- Wildomar, CA R+22
- Menifee, CA R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Concord, CA D+33
- Delray Beach, FL D+11
- Joliet, IL D+22
- Waco, TX D+3
- Bend, OR D+16
- Pueblo, CO D+8
- Spartanburg, SC R+4
- Asheville, NC D+39
- Independence, MO Even
- Riverview, FL D+6
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.