The Oaks leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 65% of adults in The Oaks typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in The Oaks, ~25% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How The Oaks compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, The Oaks leans more Republican than 15 of 17 neighbors.
The Oaks runs about 42 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while The Oaks is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within The Oaks. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+29) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 17 points.
Why The Oaks leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for The Oaks, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 81% of residents in The Oaks drive to work alone, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in The Oaks are family households, above 78% of neighborhoods. The Oaks runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Developed land and Democratic lean
Places with a heavily developed built environment tend to lean Democratic; The Oaks, Bakersfield, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in The Oaks looks the way it does
Turnout in The Oaks sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Haggin Oaks, Bakersfield, CA R+19
- Laurelglen, Bakersfield, CA R+15
- Tevis Ranch, Bakersfield, CA R+17
- Seven Oaks, Bakersfield, CA R+28
- Terra Vista, Bakersfield, CA R+7
- Silver Creek, Bakersfield, CA R+5
- Sagepointe, Bakersfield, CA D+8
- Spice Tract, Bakersfield, CA Even
- Artisan, Bakersfield, CA R+6
- Seven Oaks at Grand Island, Bakersfield, CA R+22
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Highline Villages, Aurora, CO D+45
- Bluff, Pittsburgh, PA D+48
- Banksville, Pittsburgh, PA D+20
- East Cesar Chavez, Austin, TX D+62
- Calhoun, Minneapolis, MN D+74
- Dayton-Campbell Historic District, Hamilton, OH R+11
- Downtown, St. Louis, MO D+67
- Conner, Detroit, MI D+86
- Savannah, Sunrise, FL D+14
- Northgate Sacramento, Sacramento, CA D+32
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.