Thonotosassa leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Thonotosassa typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Thonotosassa, ~27% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Thonotosassa compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Thonotosassa leans more Republican than 17 of 55 neighbors.
Politically, Thonotosassa sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Thonotosassa. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+15) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+42), a spread of about 57 points.
Why Thonotosassa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Thonotosassa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Thonotosassa votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 56%, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Thonotosassa, FL does.
Why turnout in Thonotosassa looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Thonotosassa is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in Thonotosassa rent, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Temple Terrace, FL D+20
- Mango, FL R+3
- Seffner, FL R+12
- East Lake-Orient Park, FL D+35
- University, FL D+34
- Crystal Springs, FL R+55
- Wesley Chapel, FL R+6
- Dover, FL R+32
- Lutz, FL R+18
- Lake Magdalene, FL R+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Callahan, FL R+64
- Silverton, OR R+14
- East Islip, NY R+30
- Crete, IL D+19
- Tuscumbia, AL R+52
- Ashland City, TN R+55
- Teays Valley, WV R+32
- Healdsburg, CA D+51
- Benton, KY R+56
- Platteville, WI Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.