Toano is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 92% of adults in Toano typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Toano, ~44% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~8% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Toano compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Toano leans more Republican than 14 of 86 neighbors.
Toano runs about 10 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Toano. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+21), a spread of about 27 points.
Why Toano leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Toano. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; Toano, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Toano looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Toano is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Barhamsville, VA R+30
- Lanexa, VA R+27
- Lightfoot, VA R+7
- Plum Point, VA R+34
- Plain View, VA R+35
- Holdcroft, VA R+17
- Jamestown, VA Even
- Skipwith Farms, VA D+15
- Snow Hill, VA R+33
- Williamsburg, VA D+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Monahans, TX R+54
- St. Francis, WI D+12
- Berlin, MD R+7
- Irvington, AL R+59
- Wellington, OH R+37
- Clayton, DE R+15
- House Springs, MO R+45
- Crozet, VA D+16
- North College Hill, OH D+48
- Sumrall, MS R+73
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.