Tucumcari leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Tucumcari typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tucumcari, ~27% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tucumcari compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tucumcari is the least Republican-leaning.
Tucumcari runs about 25 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Tucumcari is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tucumcari. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+57) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Tucumcari leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tucumcari, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tucumcari votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 65%, far above the New Mexico average of 18%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Tucumcari runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Tucumcari, NM sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tucumcari looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tucumcari is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Quay, NM R+73
- San Jon, NM R+70
- Logan, NM R+67
- McAlister, NM R+76
- Conchas Dam, NM R+42
- Grady, NM R+79
- House, NM R+73
Cities with Similar Populations
- Old Tappan, NJ R+8
- Allendale, NJ D+7
- Munfordville, KY R+60
- Merrimac, MA Even
- Edgemoor, DE D+51
- Keaau, HI D+12
- Moxee, WA R+33
- Manchaca, TX D+21
- Gleneagle, CO R+19
- Fellsmere, FL R+13
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.