Union leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Union typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Union, ~21% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Union compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Union leans more Republican than 16 of 76 neighbors.
Union runs about 26 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Union. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+51) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+35), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Union leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Union, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Union votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 40%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Union, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Union looks the way it does
Turnout in Union sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Villa Ridge, MO R+49
- Neier, MO R+63
- Washington, MO R+40
- St. Clair, MO R+52
- Parkway, MO R+44
- Beaufort, MO R+62
- Labadie, MO R+48
- Lyon, MO R+64
- Piney Park, MO R+61
- Robertsville, MO R+52
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pikeville, KY R+49
- Centerton, AR R+31
- Berea, OH D+12
- Nevada City, CA D+24
- Palos Hills, IL R+11
- Rockmart, GA R+52
- Florence, MS R+61
- Alpena, MI R+16
- San Carlos Park, FL R+22
- Fortville, IN R+19
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.