Upper Baseline, Little Rock, AR Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Upper Baseline

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Upper Baseline is a Democratic stronghold. About 80% of voters here vote Democratic and 20% Republican.

 

About 32% of adults in Upper Baseline typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Upper Baseline, ~26% vote Democratic, ~6% Republican, and ~68% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Upper Baseline compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Upper Baseline leans more Democratic than 3 of 10 neighbors.

Upper Baseline runs about 91 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole. Arkansas leans Republican overall, while Upper Baseline is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Upper Baseline. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+72) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+57), a spread of about 16 points.

Why Upper Baseline leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Upper Baseline, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Upper Baseline votes against the grain of Arkansas. Arkansas leans Republican overall, while Upper Baseline runs about 91 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 56% of adults in Upper Baseline have never been married, above 89% of neighborhoods.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Upper Baseline, Little Rock, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Upper Baseline looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Upper Baseline is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 35%, about 16 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 74% of households in Upper Baseline rent, compared to around 47% in nearby neighborhoods. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 49% of adults in Upper Baseline report food insecurity, above 98% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.