Upper State is a Democratic stronghold. About 75% of voters here vote Democratic and 25% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Upper State typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Upper State, ~58% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Upper State compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Upper State leans more Democratic than 3 of 7 neighbors.
Upper State runs about 31 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Upper State. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+60) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+41), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Upper State leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Upper State, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 60% of adults in Upper State hold a bachelor's degree, about 31 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Upper State, Santa Barbara, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Upper State looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Upper State is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Las Positas, Santa Barbara, CA D+45
- Westside-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA D+52
- Mesa, Santa Barbara, CA D+52
- Lower East, Santa Barbara, CA D+57
- Waterfront, Santa Barbara, CA D+55
- Riviera, Santa Barbara, CA D+49
- Eastside Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA D+44
- Sea View Estates, Oxnard, CA D+22
- Via Marina, Oxnard, CA D+25
- Sierra Linda, Oxnard, CA D+31
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Kenwood, Chicago, IL D+84
- Cherry Creek, Denver, CO D+31
- Kaimuki, Honolulu, HI D+32
- Cascade Heights, Atlanta, GA D+87
- Sterling Ridge, The Woodlands, TX R+29
- Southeast Yonkers, Yonkers, NY D+11
- Park Forest-Louisiana North, Baton Rouge, LA D+45
- Del Rio, Jacksonville, FL R+20
- Westside, Santa Cruz, CA D+73
- Alden Bridge, The Woodlands, TX R+24
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.