Mesa is a Democratic stronghold. About 76% of voters here vote Democratic and 24% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Mesa typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mesa, ~59% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mesa compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Mesa leans more Democratic than 5 of 7 neighbors.
Mesa runs about 32 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Mesa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mesa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 62% of adults in Mesa hold a bachelor's degree, about 33 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Mesa, Santa Barbara, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Mesa looks the way it does
Turnout in Mesa sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Westside-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA D+52
- Waterfront, Santa Barbara, CA D+55
- Las Positas, Santa Barbara, CA D+45
- Lower East, Santa Barbara, CA D+57
- Eastside Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA D+44
- Upper State, Santa Barbara, CA D+51
- Riviera, Santa Barbara, CA D+49
- Sea View Estates, Oxnard, CA D+22
- Via Marina, Oxnard, CA D+25
- Sierra Linda, Oxnard, CA D+31
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Argay, Portland, OR D+30
- South Central Improvemen, Wichita, KS D+12
- Bond Hill, Cincinnati, OH D+72
- University District, Cleveland, OH D+73
- Jomacha-Lomita, San Diego, CA D+29
- Grant Hill, San Diego, CA D+42
- Montrose Verdugo City, La Crescenta, CA D+12
- Liberty Area, Lexington, KY D+18
- Ben Hill, Atlanta, GA D+83
- Greenhaven, Sacramento, CA D+40
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.