Lower East is a Democratic stronghold. About 78% of voters here vote Democratic and 22% Republican.
About 56% of adults in Lower East typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lower East, ~44% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lower East compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Lower East is the most Democratic-leaning.
Lower East runs about 36 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Lower East. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+66) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+47), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Lower East leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lower East, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Lower East live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 47% of adults in Lower East have never been married, above 76% of neighborhoods.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Lower East, Santa Barbara, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Lower East looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 14% of homes in Lower East have more than one occupant per room, above 96% of neighborhoods. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 67% of households in Lower East rent, compared to around 51% in nearby neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Eastside Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA D+44
- Waterfront, Santa Barbara, CA D+55
- Riviera, Santa Barbara, CA D+49
- Westside-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA D+52
- Mesa, Santa Barbara, CA D+52
- Las Positas, Santa Barbara, CA D+45
- Upper State, Santa Barbara, CA D+51
- Sea View Estates, Oxnard, CA D+22
- Sierra Linda, Oxnard, CA D+31
- South Bank, Oxnard, CA D+30
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Woodside Village, Largo, FL R+8
- North University, Tucson, AZ D+56
- Mt Ivy, Pomona, NY Even
- Alban Hills, Albuquerque, NM D+10
- Western Hills, Beaumont, TX D+21
- Lewelling, Milwaukie, OR D+39
- Orem North, Orem, UT R+26
- Arctic, West Warwick, RI D+8
- Questa, Mountain House, CA D+10
- Riverside Park, Fort Lauderdale, FL D+34
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.