Valley County leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Valley County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Valley County, ~20% vote Democratic, ~58% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Valley County compares
Valley County runs about 28 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Valley County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+64) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+21), a spread of about 43 points.
Why Valley County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Valley County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Valley County, MT does.
Why turnout in Valley County looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 95% of adults in Valley County have completed high school, above 90% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Phillips County, MT R+52
- Roosevelt County, MT Even
- McCone County, MT R+72
- Daniels County, MT R+66
- Garfield County, MT R+87
- Sheridan County, MT R+58
- Blaine County, MT Even
- Dawson County, MT R+55
- Richland County, MT R+62
- Prairie County, MT R+68
Counties with Similar Populations
- Monroe County, IA R+43
- Clay County, TN R+67
- Dade County, MO R+67
- Grant County, SD R+52
- Cleveland County, AR R+69
- Boise County, ID R+50
- Nicholas County, KY R+60
- Red River Parish, LA R+19
- McCulloch County, TX R+56
- Decatur County, IA R+44
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.