Cleveland County is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Cleveland County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Cleveland County, ~9% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Cleveland County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Cleveland County leans more Republican than 8 of 9 neighbors.
Cleveland County runs about 38 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Cleveland County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+81) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+61), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Cleveland County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Cleveland County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in Cleveland County live in densely developed areas, about 8 points below the Arkansas average of 13%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Cleveland County, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Cleveland County looks the way it does
Turnout in Cleveland County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Dallas County, AR R+18
- Lincoln County, AR R+41
- Jefferson County, AR D+22
- Bradley County, AR R+30
- Drew County, AR R+25
- Calhoun County, AR R+61
- Grant County, AR R+71
- Desha County, AR R+7
- Ouachita County, AR R+14
- Arkansas County, AR R+33
Counties with Similar Populations
- Grant County, SD R+52
- Nicholas County, KY R+60
- Dade County, MO R+67
- Monroe County, IA R+43
- Valley County, MT R+48
- Clay County, TN R+67
- Doniphan County, KS R+58
- Marion County, GA R+29
- Adair County, IA R+46
- Harney County, OR R+47
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.