Valparaiso leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Valparaiso typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Valparaiso, ~23% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Valparaiso compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Valparaiso leans more Republican than 12 of 26 neighbors.
Valparaiso runs about 28 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Valparaiso. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+46) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+34), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Valparaiso leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Valparaiso, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Valparaiso votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 70%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Valparaiso, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Valparaiso looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 99% of adults in Valparaiso have completed high school, about 9 points above the Florida average of 89%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Niceville, FL R+38
- Eglin Afb, FL R+28
- Lake Lorraine, FL R+29
- Shalimar, FL R+30
- Destin, FL R+40
- Ocean City, FL R+29
- Cinco Bayou, FL R+32
- Fort Walton Beach, FL R+27
- Wright, FL R+18
- Miramar Beach, FL R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- North Terre Haute, IN R+28
- Prentiss, MS D+25
- New Baden, IL R+37
- Richmond, IL R+14
- Leonard, MI R+36
- Leo, IN R+47
- Pekin, IN R+59
- Ticonderoga, NY R+15
- Pride, LA R+65
- East Palatka, FL R+48
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.