Waconia leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 96% of adults in Waconia typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Waconia, ~41% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~4% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Waconia compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Waconia leans more Republican than 38 of 79 neighbors.
Waconia runs about 18 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Waconia is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Waconia. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+20) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Waconia leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Waconia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Waconia votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 59%, far above the Minnesota average of 23%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Waconia runs against the grain of Minnesota, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Waconia, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Waconia looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Waconia is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 99% of adults in Waconia have completed high school, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cologne, MN R+33
- St. Bonifacius, MN R+11
- Norwood, MN R+36
- Mayer, MN R+35
- Victoria, MN R+5
- Young America, MN R+43
- Minnetrista, MN R+5
- Norwood Young America, MN R+33
- Watertown, MN R+30
- Chaska, MN D+2
Cities with Similar Populations
- Babylon, NY R+14
- Middleton, ID R+60
- Canal Fulton, OH R+33
- Henderson, CO R+2
- Ruther Glen, VA R+11
- Grand Terrace, CA R+5
- Fleetwood, PA R+29
- Hazel Crest, IL D+80
- Ripley, TN R+11
- Decatur, TX R+63
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.