Wagoner is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 48% of adults in Wagoner typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wagoner, ~11% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wagoner compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wagoner leans more Republican than 14 of 22 neighbors.
Wagoner runs about 47 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why Wagoner leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wagoner, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Wagoner live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Wagoner, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Wagoner looks the way it does
Turnout in Wagoner sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Crown King, AZ R+53
- Kirkland Junction, AZ R+54
- Wilhoit, AZ R+54
- Kirkland, AZ R+55
- Yarnell, AZ R+51
- Cleator, AZ R+50
- Peeples Valley, AZ R+51
- Poland Junction, AZ R+45
- Mayer, AZ R+43
- Miller Valley, AZ R+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- Baker, ND R+46
- Oakwood, IA R+50
- Swift Run, VA R+62
- Swan Lake, MT R+35
- Tate, AR R+73
- Tacoma Park, SD R+58
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.