Warm Springs is a Democratic stronghold. About 78% of voters here vote Democratic and 22% Republican.
About 48% of adults in Warm Springs typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Warm Springs, ~38% vote Democratic, ~11% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Warm Springs compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Warm Springs is the most Democratic-leaning.
Warm Springs runs about 42 points more Democratic than Oregon as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Warm Springs. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+65) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+26), a spread of about 38 points.
Why Warm Springs leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Warm Springs, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 51% of adults in Warm Springs have never been married, well above similar-sized cities (around 29%).
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Warm Springs, OR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Warm Springs looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Warm Springs is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 17 points below the Oregon average of 63%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 44% of households in Warm Springs rent, compared to around 24% in nearby cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Warm Springs sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- South Junction, OR R+8
- Simnasho, OR D+19
- Madras, OR R+30
- Metolius, OR R+44
- Willowdale, OR R+46
- Culver, OR R+49
- Ashwood, OR R+46
- Terrebonne, OR R+38
- Marion Forks, OR D+2
- Maupin, OR R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pittsville, MD R+39
- Phillipsburg, KS R+63
- Amherst, WI R+23
- Calhoun, KY R+59
- Cumberland, KY R+68
- Coalville, UT R+43
- Hallam, PA R+20
- Rosemary Bch, FL R+41
- Elkton, OH R+44
- East Dublin, GA D+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.