Watermill leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Watermill typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Watermill, ~45% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Watermill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Watermill leans more Democratic than 27 of 46 neighbors.
Politically, Watermill sits close to the rest of New York.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Watermill. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Watermill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Watermill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 72% of adults in Watermill hold a bachelor's degree, about 43 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Watermill sits in the top fifth on density (about 44%, above 85% of cities).
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Watermill, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Watermill looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Watermill is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in Watermill own their home, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Watermill have completed high school, above 90% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bridgehampton, NY D+26
- North Sea, NY D+7
- Sagaponack, NY D+30
- Noyack, NY D+14
- Southampton, NY D+14
- Wainscott, NY D+20
- Sag Harbor, NY D+24
- North Haven, NY D+31
- Shinnecock Hills, NY D+7
- Northwest Harbor, NY D+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Janesville, IA R+27
- Madelia, MN R+19
- Rancho Viejo, TX R+9
- New Britain, PA D+6
- Red Hill, PA R+12
- McComb, OH R+58
- Richland, PA R+50
- Reed Creek, GA R+61
- West Tawakoni, TX R+63
- Pleasant Valley, MO R+8
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.