Winter Haven leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Winter Haven typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Winter Haven, ~30% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Winter Haven compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Winter Haven leans more Democratic than 5 of 6 neighbors.
Winter Haven runs about 20 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Winter Haven is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Winter Haven. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+6), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Winter Haven leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Winter Haven, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 33% of adults in Winter Haven have never been married, modestly above similar-sized cities (around 22%). Winter Haven runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Winter Haven, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Winter Haven looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Winter Haven is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 37%, about 17 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 39% of households in Winter Haven rent, above 94% of cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Winter Haven sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Crystal City, TX D+5
- La Pryor, TX R+6
- Carrizo Springs, TX R+5
- Big Wells, TX Even
- Batesville, TX D+8
- Asherton, TX D+4
- Catarina, TX Even
- Divot, TX R+29
- Valley Wells, TX R+13
- Uvalde, TX R+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Akaska, SD R+79
- Norwood, VA R+36
- Eufola, NC R+54
- North Hatfield, MA D+37
- Watoga, WV R+56
- Schley, MN Even
- Smithson, IN R+53
- Sligo, OH R+63
- Satin, TX R+68
- Trojan, SD R+51
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.