12186 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 85% of adults in 12186 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12186, ~46% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12186 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12186 leans more Democratic than 21 of 50 neighbors.
Politically, 12186 sits close to the rest of New York.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 12186. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+19) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 38 points.
Why 12186 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12186, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 52% of adults in 12186 hold a bachelor's degree, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 12186, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 12186 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 12186 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 12186 have completed high school, above 89% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.