12530 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 94% of adults in 12530 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12530, ~46% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~6% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12530 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12530 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 17 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 9 leaning the other way.
12530 runs about 15 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12530 sits closer to the political middle.
Why 12530 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12530, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
12530 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12530 runs about 15 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 12530, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 12530 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 12530 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 95% of households in 12530 own their home, compared to around 80% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.