20152 leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 82% of adults in 20152 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 20152, ~49% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 20152 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 20152 leans more Democratic than 13 of 38 neighbors.
20152 runs about 14 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Why 20152 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 20152, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 69% of adults in 20152 hold a bachelor's degree, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and 20152 sits in the top fifth on density (about 84%, above 85% of zip codes).
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 20152, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 20152 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 20152 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.