22031 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 70% of adults in 22031 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22031, ~49% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22031 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22031 leans more Democratic than 40 of 107 neighbors.
22031 runs about 35 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 22031. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+52) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+18), a spread of about 34 points.
Why 22031 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22031, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 73% of adults in 22031 hold a bachelor's degree, about 44 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and 22031 sits in the top fifth on density (about 91%, above 88% of zip codes).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 22031, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 22031 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 22031 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.