23124 leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 92% of adults in 23124 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23124, ~31% vote Democratic, ~61% Republican, and ~8% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23124 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23124 leans more Republican than 7 of 12 neighbors.
23124 runs about 37 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23124 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23124. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 23124 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23124, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 86% of households in 23124 are family households, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 67%. 23124 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 23124, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 23124 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23124 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 96% of households in 23124 own their home, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.