23409 leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 23409 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23409, ~17% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23409 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23409 leans more Republican than 21 of 24 neighbors.
23409 runs about 47 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23409 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23409. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+32), a spread of about 12 points.
Why 23409 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23409, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
23409 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23409 runs about 47 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and 23409 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 85% of zip codes). Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 23409 sits in the bottom quarter (about 8%, below 97% of zip codes).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 23409, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 23409 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 23409 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in 23409 report food insecurity, above 86% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in 23409 have completed high school, below 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.