32831 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 40% of adults in 32831 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32831, ~22% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32831 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32831 leans more Democratic than 16 of 25 neighbors.
32831 runs about 20 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 32831 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32831. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+12) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+7), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 32831 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 32831, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 59% of adults in 32831 have never been married, far above similar-sized zip codes (around 26%). 32831 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 32831, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 32831 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 32831 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 66% of adults in 32831 have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.