33406 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 52% of adults in 33406 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33406, ~24% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33406 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33406 leans more Republican than 25 of 34 neighbors.
33406 runs about 6 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33406. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+17), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 33406 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33406, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33406 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 98%, far above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 33406, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 33406 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33406 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 24%, about 9 points above the Florida average of 15%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in 33406 rent, above 82% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.