33974 leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 56% of adults in 33974 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33974, ~25% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33974 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33974 leans more Republican than 4 of 14 neighbors.
Politically, 33974 sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33974. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+20) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+7), a spread of about 12 points.
Why 33974 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33974, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33974 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 91%, far above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 33974 sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 78% of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in 33974 are family households, above 95% of zip codes.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 33974, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 33974 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33974 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 8 points below the Florida average of 56%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 84% of adults in 33974 have completed high school, below 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.