34138 is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 68% of adults in 34138 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 34138, ~13% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 34138 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 34138 is the most Republican-leaning.
34138 runs about 50 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why 34138 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 34138, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 1% of adults in 34138 hold a bachelor's degree, about 29 points below the Florida average of 31%. Rural areas vote Republican, and 34138 sits in the bottom quarter on density (fewer than 1%, in the bottom fraction of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 88% of households in 34138 are family households, in the top fraction of zip codes.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 34138, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 34138 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 34138 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 96% of households in 34138 own their home, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.