34203 leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 66% of adults in 34203 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 34203, ~28% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 34203 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 34203 leans more Republican than 14 of 30 neighbors.
Politically, 34203 sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 34203. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+30), a spread of about 38 points.
Why 34203 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 34203, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
34203 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 86%, well above the Florida average of 57%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 34203, FL sits below the national average on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 34203 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 34203 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.