34238 leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 92% of adults in 34238 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 34238, ~40% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~8% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 34238 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 34238 leans more Republican than 11 of 21 neighbors.
Politically, 34238 sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 34238. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+20) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 12 points.
Why 34238 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 34238, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
34238 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 80%, well above the Florida average of 57%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 34238, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 34238 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 34238 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 34238 have completed high school, above 91% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.