37412 leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 58% of adults in 37412 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 37412, ~24% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 37412 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 37412 leans more Republican than 13 of 33 neighbors.
37412 runs about 12 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 37412. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+23) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 14 points.
Why 37412 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 37412, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
37412 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 93%, far above the Tennessee average of 21%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 37412, TN does.
Why turnout in 37412 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 37412 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 40% of households in 37412 rent, compared to around 56% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.