40515 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 40515 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 40515, ~40% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 40515 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 40515 leans more Democratic than 8 of 19 neighbors.
40515 runs about 42 points more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole. Kentucky leans Republican overall, while 40515 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 40515. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+23), a spread of about 44 points.
Why 40515 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 40515, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 52% of adults in 40515 hold a bachelor's degree, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and 40515 sits in the top fifth on density (about 81%, above 83% of zip codes). 40515 runs against the grain of Kentucky, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 40515, KY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 40515 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 40515 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.